What's Next for Japan's Inbound Tourism? ~ Rising Overseas Travel Sentiment and Japan's Growing Popularity ~

The spread of the novel coronavirus temporarily imposed significant restrictions on global movement, leading to changes in lifestyles and values. While the end remains unclear, economic activity and human mobility are resuming and intensifying under the concept of "living with COVID-19."

How has the Japan brand fared after the pandemic?
What business opportunities are likely to emerge in the future?

Using the latest data from Dentsu Inc.'s Japan Brand Survey ( overview here ), a majorly revamped proprietary survey targeting overseas middle-to-high-income consumers launched in 2022, we will explore the current state of the Japan brand and Japan's future potential. In Parts 1 and 2, we will focus on the theme of "inbound tourism."

Europe is already moving, Asia is cautious. Regional differences in travel sentiment and overseas travel trends

The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) reported that global international tourist arrivals in 2021 reached 415 million, a 4% increase from the previous year. While this remains significantly lower than the 1.461 billion recorded in 2019, the number of people already starting to travel abroad is growing.

In a 2022 Japan Brand Survey asking about overseas travel planning timelines, the most common response was "after the novel coronavirus is completely eradicated." However, a significant number also stated they were "already considering countries/regions where restrictions have lifted" or had "already resumed overseas travel."

This response was particularly common in Europe (Data ①). Separate search volume analysis using Google tools also showed that European countries saw travel-related searches recover to 2019 levels or higher very quickly, indicating a high level of travel enthusiasm. This is likely largely influenced by the fact that travel within the EU was permitted earlier in Europe.

Conversely, in Asia, particularly East Asian countries and regions, fewer people are considering or undertaking overseas travel. Scores for the item "after the novel coronavirus has completely disappeared" are also significantly higher compared to Europe and the US, indicating a lack of readiness for overseas travel. Asia accounted for about 80% of pre-pandemic visitors to Japan, making it a crucial region for Japan's inbound tourism. The timing of travel sentiment recovery in Asia is likely to have a major impact on Japan's future inbound tourism.

"Enjoying with peace of mind" emerges as the key phrase. How has the desire for overseas travel changed before and after COVID-19?

So, how have overseas travel needs changed before and after COVID? Looking at the 2022 results for "Key Considerations for Overseas Travel," while referencing pre-COVID results from the Japan Brand Survey (2018 survey), it appears that elements related to "nature" and "safety" are now more highly valued (Data ②).

In Taiwan specifically, "Good Public Safety" and "Good Sanitary Conditions" occupy the top two positions. It appears that people in Asia tend to place significant importance on "whether they can stay with peace of mind."

Conversely, in Europe and America, nature-related items like "unique natural scenery," "surrounded by mountains and sea with rich natural environments," and "comfortable temperatures and humidity levels" occupy the top three spots. While people find trips where they can breathe deeply and freely in nature appealing, the desire to "spend time in nature rather than crowded city centers" might also reflect the post-pandemic sentiment of wanting to "stay somewhere safe."

That said, travel desires haven't fundamentally changed from pre-pandemic times. In our 2022 Japan Brand Survey, when asked what would boost overseas travel motivation, the top response was "videos showcasing the destination's climate and natural appeal," followed closely by "videos highlighting the destination's cultural appeal" and "videos showcasing the destination's culinary appeal" (Data ③).

The universal travel desires—"to experience different cultures" and "to eat delicious food"—remain strong even after COVID-19. Perhaps these experiences, unavailable during the pandemic, are now sought even more intensely.

Is Japan's Inbound Tourism Okay? Expectations Grow for New Customer Segments

While we mentioned earlier that "Asians aren't in the mood for overseas travel," results show that "Japan" is a popular destination post-pandemic, regardless of region.

When presented with multiple overseas travel destinations including Japan and asked to choose their "Desired Overseas Travel Destination," "Japan" was overwhelmingly the top choice. Moreover, "Japan" ranked first in 17 out of 22 countries surveyed, significantly improving its position even in countries where it hadn't ranked highly before the pandemic (Data ④).

Before the pandemic, Japan was not a major travel destination for many Western countries. As people seek to break free from the confines of pandemic life, the desire to visit new places and experience greater escapism – part of a rebound consumption trend – is likely driving Japan's popularity. This is further supported by its natural beauty, surrounded by the sea and blessed with distinct seasons, along with its longstanding reputation for safety and cleanliness.

So, when will tourists return to Japan as restrictions gradually ease? When asked about their preferred timing for future visits, "after the novel coronavirus has completely disappeared" and "after the WHO declares the pandemic over" were the top two answers. However, this seems to be more of an ideal scenario (Data ⑤).

What factors actually trigger the decision to visit Japan?
Following the top two, the next highest-scoring reason is "after Japan lifts its entry/exit restrictions." With many countries and regions still maintaining restrictions, this suggests a growing trend of "going where you can go, where it's easy to go." Further deregulation in Japan appears to be a crucial timing factor.

Furthermore, in ASEAN, factors like "after travel agencies officially restart Japan tours" and "after major airline routes resume operations" highlight the importance of establishing actual means to travel.
In East Asia, where travel sentiment has been slow to recover, a tendency is also somewhat visible to wait until people actually start moving before following suit, such as "when friends or acquaintances begin traveling to Japan."

Considering the above, it is predicted that once Japan fully eases restrictions, the first to move will likely be the high-intent travelers from Europe and America, followed by ASEAN, and finally East Asia, which will likely wait and see. Of course, this depends on the future course of the pandemic, and Asia remains a crucial target as the volume zone for inbound travelers. However, it is certain that opportunities to attract new customer segments are emerging.

This article introduced how, amid regional differences in the "with COVID" era, people are starting to move again. As overseas travel needs partially shift, Japan is gaining attention as an attractive travel destination. So, what should be done to actually bring foreign tourists to Japan and capitalize on this opportunity? Next time, we'll discuss hints for recovering and expanding Japan's inbound tourism.

【Contact for Inquiries Regarding This Matter】
Dentsu Inc. Japan Brand Project Team
japanbrand@dentsu.co.jp

Japan Brand Survey Hub Page
https://www.dentsu.co.jp/knowledge/japan_brand/

[Purpose of the Dentsu Inc. Japan Brand Survey]
Dentsu Inc.'s proprietary survey initiated in 2011 to understand how the Japan Brand was perceived globally when reputational damage occurred to Japanese agricultural and marine products and inbound tourism following the Great East Japan Earthquake. In 2022, it evolved into a cross-company project activity to enhance expertise through a fundamental restructuring of the survey design, analytical approach, and outputs.In 2025, it will newly plan and build a knowledge portfolio for the general public, aiming to create social value grounded in consumer insights.
The Japan Brand Survey regularly gauges the awareness and actual attitudes of overseas consumers regarding the Japan Brand as a whole, covering areas such as inbound tourism, regional revitalization, food, Japanese products, content, values, lifestyles, and social trends. It visualizes the changing sentiments of consumers and the challenges and potential of the Japan Brand, contributing to increasingly complex corporate activities while also promoting cross-cultural understanding within Japanese society.

【Dentsu Inc. Japan Brand Survey 2022: Survey Overview】
・Target Areas: 22 countries/regions (United States, Canada, Mainland China, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, India, Australia, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Russia, Finland)
・Sample Size: 8,220 (Breakdown: United States 960, Mainland China 1,260, Other countries/regions 300 each)
・Survey Period: December 2021 to January 2022
・Respondent criteria: Men and women aged 20–59 (middle-income and above)
・Survey Method: Online survey
・Research Organizations: Dentsu Inc. (Principal Investigator), Video Research Ltd. (Implementation Support)

[Notes and Disclaimers]
※1: Mainland China coverage primarily includes Tier 1 cities; India coverage includes Delhi and Mumbai; Australia coverage includes the Sydney metropolitan area; Southeast Asia coverage is limited primarily to metropolitan areas.
※2: Definition of middle-income level: Criteria set per country based on national average income (e.g., OECD statistics) and social class classification (SEC).
※3: Samples were collected with equal allocation by gender and age group for each country/region, then weighted to match the population composition.
※4: Proportions in this survey are rounded to the second decimal place (or first decimal place for some integer values), so totals may not add up to 100%.
※5: Country and region names used in this survey report and on the website follow the longstanding views of the Japanese government, Japanese social norms, and business practices.
※6: In creating the charts and graphs for this survey, the names of the countries and regions analyzed use the international standard ISO Country Code (ISO 3166-1 alpha-2/3), with some exceptions.
United States/US/USA, Canada/CA/CAN, Australia/AU/AUS, United Kingdom/UK/GBR, Germany/DE/DEU, France/FR/FRA, Italy/IT/ITA,Spain/ES/ESP, Finland/FI/FIN, United Arab Emirates/UAE, Saudi Arabia/SA/SAU, India/IN/IND, Indonesia/ID/IDN, Singapore/SG/SGP, Malaysia/MY/MYS, Philippines/PH/PHL, Thailand/TH/THA,Vietnam/VN/VNM, Mainland China/CN/CHN, Hong Kong/HK/HKG, Taiwan/TW/TWN, South Korea/KR/KOR
※7: The names of countries and regions used in this survey are for statistical or analytical convenience only and do not indicate any political stance or viewpoint.
※8: The maps used in this survey (world map and Japan map) have been partially modified and cropped to suit the analysis content and page layout. They do not necessarily accurately reflect national borders or territorial boundaries.